Marriage Rate Trends: Why Fewer People Are Getting Married
Marriage rates have dropped 63% since 1970. Here's what the data shows about why—and what it means for dating today.
Marriage rates have been declining for decades, fundamentally reshaping the dating landscape. Whether you're looking for marriage or not, these trends affect everyone's dating pool and expectations.
The Decline By The Numbers
Marriage rates have fallen dramatically:
- 1970: 76.5 marriages per 1,000 unmarried women
- 1990: 54.5 per 1,000
- 2010: 36.0 per 1,000
- 2024: 28.1 per 1,000 (estimated)
That's a 63% decline in marriage rate over 54 years. The median age at first marriage has also risen from 23 (men) and 21 (women) in 1970 to 30 and 28 today.
Who's Getting Married?
Marriage patterns have shifted by education and income:
- College graduates: 65% married by age 40
- High school only: 50% married by age 40
- No high school diploma: 40% married by age 40
Marriage is increasingly concentrated among the educated and higher-earning. This creates a "marriage gap" that compounds existing inequalities.
Why Are Fewer People Marrying?
Research points to several factors:
- Economic: Rising housing and living costs, student debt, wage stagnation
- Cultural: Less social pressure to marry, acceptance of alternatives
- Career: Education and careers taking longer to establish
- Risk aversion: High divorce rates make marriage seem risky
The "Marriageable Men" Debate
Some researchers argue there's a shortage of "marriageable" men—defined as employed, educated, and not incarcerated. The data shows:
- Women out-earn their partners in ~30% of couples
- Women now receive 57% of bachelor's degrees
- Men's labor force participation has declined significantly since 1970
This creates a mismatch: if educated women want equally-educated high-earning men, there aren't enough to go around mathematically.
The "Never Married" Pool
For daters, the "never married" preference matters more than ever:
- Ages 25-29: ~65% never married (up from 35% in 1980)
- Ages 30-34: ~45% never married (up from 15% in 1980)
- Ages 35-39: ~30% never married (up from 8% in 1980)
The "never married by 30" pool has nearly tripled since 1980, giving you more options—but also more competition.
Cohabitation: The Marriage Alternative
As marriage declines, cohabitation rises:
- 59% of adults 18-44 have cohabited at some point
- Many couples now cohabit as a "trial marriage"
- Some prefer long-term cohabitation over marriage entirely
This affects the "single" label—someone in a 5-year cohabiting relationship isn't "married" but isn't available either.
Divorce Trends
While often cited, "50% of marriages end in divorce" is somewhat outdated:
- Divorce rates peaked in 1981 and have declined since
- First marriages among college graduates have ~25% divorce rate
- First marriages among non-graduates have ~50%+ divorce rate
Education is protective against divorce, which may explain why educated singles are more willing to wait for "the right person."
The Bottom Line
Marriage is declining, delaying, and concentrating among the educated. This creates both opportunities (more never-married people at older ages) and challenges (competition for "marriageable" partners). Understanding these trends helps contextualize the modern dating landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are fewer people getting married?
Yes. Marriage rates have declined about 63% since 1970. The median age at first marriage has risen from 21-23 to 28-30. Only about 50% of adults are currently married, down from 72% in 1960.
Why are marriage rates declining?
Multiple factors: economic pressures (housing costs, debt), cultural shifts (less stigma for being single), longer education timelines, and concerns about divorce risk.
Is there really a shortage of 'marriageable' men?
It depends on definitions. Women now out-earn and out-educate men on average. If women want equally-educated high-earning partners, there mathematically aren't enough to go around.
Does education affect marriage?
Significantly. 65% of college graduates marry by 40 vs. 50% of high school only graduates. College graduates also divorce at lower rates (~25% vs 50%+).
What does this mean for dating?
More people stay single longer, creating larger never-married pools at older ages but also more competition. Cohabitation has risen as an alternative to marriage.
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